Each bar is a feature's push on the model from the center axis. Red pushes toward Chikadze, blue toward Brito. Tap a bar for why.
Odds are model-implied (no real prop market is priced for these). The “most” prices are draw-no-bet — a tie (for takedowns, usually 0–0) is a push, so each side is priced off its chance of winning given a result, while the % shown is the raw chance of landing strictly more. Drag a line in half-point steps: a half line (e.g. 2.5) is a clean over/under, while a whole number adds a third outcome — landing exactly on it, a push — so over, exact and under sum to 100%. On a whole number the over/under odds are draw-no-bet (priced off the decisive mass, since the push refunds), so the two sides stay mirror images rather than implying an arbitrage.
Expected fight time 12.0 min. Predicted-output ranges are percentiles of the model’s simulated fights: sig strikes the middle 50% (25th–75th); takedowns the wider 10th–90th, since they’re 0 in most fights so a narrow band would collapse to 0. Win-by-method = win probability × that fighter’s own method split: the model forecasts how the fight ends, and that forecast is divided between the corners by each fighter’s finishing record — UFC wins in full, earlier-career wins at half weight, as of fight night — reconciled so the fighters’ totals still equal their win probabilities and the methods still total the fight-level forecast above. “Equity” is each of those over that fighter’s win % — how they win given that they win — so a column adds to 100%, and it differs by corner. A fighter with no classifiable wins at any level leans on the fight-level split. “How it ends” is the model’s round-of-finish split. “Mkt” is the de-vigged market prop (consensus across books), shown for context, not as a betting signal; rounds & totals slots fill as that data lands. Percentages are apportioned by largest remainder, so each set adds to its total exactly and an individual figure can sit a point off its own rounding.
No market on record for this bout.
Small figures are each fighter's percentile among UFC fighters (higher = better).
- LKevin VallejosKO/TKO R2Close +2919mo before
- LDavid OnamaU-DEC R3missedClose +1691y 5mo before
- LArnold AllenU-DEC R3Close +2172y 2mo before
- WAlex CaceresU-DEC R3Close -2543y 1mo before
- LCalvin KattarU-DEC R5Close -2414y 8mo before
- WJordan LeavittSUB R1Close -1803mo before
- WIsaac ThomsonU-DEC R3Close -2429mo before
- LPat SabatiniU-DEC R3Close -2151y 5mo before
- LWilliam GomisS-DEC R3Close -3202y before
- WJack ShoreKO/TKO R2Close -2102y 5mo before
Bar length is fight count (largest bar = full width); shading splits finishes by round and decisions by unanimous vs split — tap a bar for the round-by-round count.
Bar length is fight count (largest bar = full width); shading splits finishes by round and decisions by unanimous vs split — tap a bar for the round-by-round count.
Profiles
Opponents' records on fight night — toggle their full cross-promotional record vs UFC bouts only.
- Head58%(340)div 64%
- Body26%(154)div 20%
- Legs16%(95)div 16%
- Head52%(97)div 64%
- Body15%(28)div 20%
- Legs34%(63)div 16%
Where each fighter lands significant strikes (career). “div” = the weight-class average.
Per-fight: SS & TD shown landed/attempted; Close = consensus closing line.
Per-fight: SS & TD shown landed/attempted; Close = consensus closing line.