The Ultimate Fight Fan
Rafael Natal

Fighter profile

Rafael Natal

MW21-9-1P4P #315Div #41
Form
3.4
3.3
5.2
8.9
6.0
76
Overall
SoS 60
Skill ratings
Striking
66
Boxing
64
Kicking
74
Clinch
65
Striking def.
72
Wrestling off.
77
Wrestling def.
77
Ground game
75
Submissions
71
Grappling def.
86
Profile
Age43
Height6'0"
Reach77"
StanceOrthodox
StyleBalanced
CountryBRA
Pro debut2005
UFC record9-7-1
Last fight2017-07-22
Octagon time211.6 min
Avg fight12.4 min
Career length21y 3m
Elo trajectory
Skill Elos

Per-discipline Elo and momentum, each with its percentile within the MW division (350 fighters).

Striking offense1490
19th
MW avg 1500
Striking defense1505
70th
MW avg 1500
Grappling offense1501
59th
MW avg 1497
Grappling defense1517
80th
MW avg 1504
Momentum15
45th
MW avg 23
Win / loss by method
Record: 21-9-1

Bar length is fight count (largest bar = full width); shading splits finishes by round and decisions by unanimous vs split — tap a bar for the round-by-round count.

KO/TKO
4 wins, 6 losses
W
19% of wins
L
67% of losses
Submission
8 wins, 0 losses
W
38% of wins
L
0% of losses
Decision
9 wins, 3 losses
W
43% of wins
L
33% of losses
UFC
9win7loss1draw0NC
WinsLosses
1 (11%)KO/TKO(57%) 4
1 (11%)Submission(0%) 0
7 (78%)Decision(43%) 3
Non-UFC
12win2loss0draw0NC
WinsLosses
3 (25%)KO/TKO(100%) 2
7 (58%)Submission(0%) 0
2 (17%)Decision(0%) 0
UFC stats
Filters
Stat
Window
Peers
3+ fights

Striking · offense

Sig. strikes656
Sig. accuracy48%
Sig. attempted1370
Total strikes1055
Total attempted1821
Knockdowns5
Head379
Body93
Leg184
Distance432
Clinch79
Ground145

Striking · defense

Sig. absorbed524
Sig. defense58%
KDs absorbed6
Head abs.315
Body abs.73
Leg abs.136
Distance abs.369
Clinch abs.58
Ground abs.97

Grappling · offense

Takedowns36
TD accuracy34%
TD attempted105
Sub att.7
Reversals1
Control time53:39

Grappling · defense

TD defense77%
TDs absorbed8
TD att. faced35
Sub att. faced2
Controlled time30:47

Totals (no benchmarks in this view) · 17 UFC fights · 211:38 total fight time

Schedule strength
Filters
Scope
Opp
Window
Peers
3+ fights

Opponents' records as of fight night — the quality of opposition Rafael has faced, inside the UFC and out.

UFC opponents
all-promotion · as of fight night · career
OverallAverage
216W–64Lwin 77.1%div #156/247pct 37th
WinsAverage
122W–33Lwin 78.7%div #102/231pct 56th
LossesSoft
94W–31Lwin 75.2%div #196/237pct 18th

Div rank, percentile & tier place this view's opp win % among active division peers with 3+ UFC bouts (career distribution).

Opponent Elo
UFC P4P · as of fight night · career
OverallAverage
1536 elodiv #128/247pct 49th
WinsAverage
1528 elodiv #123/232pct 47th
LossesAverage
1547 elodiv #116/237pct 51st

Mean UFC pound-for-pound Elo of opponents faced (~1500 = average), split by result. Div rank, percentile & tier place it among active division peers with 3+ UFC bouts (career distribution).

Non-UFC opponents
all promotions · as of fight night · career
Opp recordOpp win %
Overall65W–22L74.7%
Wins58W–22L72.5%
Losses7W–0L100.0%

Opponents' records as of each fight night, counted from their full pro careers rather than only the bouts we hold — so a regional opponent reads as the fighter they were, not as 0‑0. Always all promotions; SCOPE does not apply here.

Market profile

How the betting market priced Rafael, and the hypothetical return on a flat 1-unit bet at the closing line every UFC fight. Retrospective analytics — not a betting signal.

Net return
+1.32u+8.2% ROI

over 16 close-line bets

Average odds
-116

54% implied

As favorite
7W–3L

ROI +6.7%

Avg -185

As underdog
2W–4L

ROI +10.8%

Avg +184

Based on 16 of 16 UFC fights with a closing line · draws & no-contests excluded.

Fight history
Filters
Scope
Stat
Window
CloseSSTDKDCtrl

Per-fight: SS & TD shown landed/attempted; Close = consensus closing line.